Monday, January 18, 2016

Deadpool's Going To Flop

Here's a bold prediction for you. I don't think Deadpool is going to do very well at the box office. It's not that I think the movie looks bad or anything, or that I hope it's going to do poorly, I just have this feeling in my gut that it isn't going to do well. On twitter the other day I predicted that it would open at like $25 million, then drop the next week to, oh lets say 15 million and by the end of it's theatrical run it will have made somewhere in the range of $70-90 million.

Ok so, flop might not be completely accurate (I'm only a paragraph in and I'm already waffling on my attention grabbing headline, look at me Buzzfeed!). I can't find official numbers but I've read that the budget for Deadpool is shockingly low. Let's say the movie only cost $40-50 million to make and it earns $90 million domestically is that a hit? Kick Ass had a budget of $30 Million and it made exactly $97 million domestically and that seem to qualify as a hit and spawned a sequel. Kick Ass 2 on the other hand cost $30 Million, made $60 Million and is considered a flop. In other Ryan Reynolds related projects, Green Lantern had a $200 million budget, made $219 million and is considered a HUGE flop.

The lesson learned is that Hollywood is weird and I'm pretty sure they do all of their accounting using puka shells and Uno cards.

I guess if my point is that I have no idea what the expectations for Deadpool are, but I have a feeling it's not going to hit them. It's certainly not going to be the key to Fox's dreams of replicating the Marvel Cinematic Universe.




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